Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: predicting the risk

A model to assess the risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been developed. Lung diseases such as emphysema and chronic bronchitis, collectively known as COPD, are responsible for 6% of all deaths annually worldwide. Smoking is a key risk factor but there is no tool available to doctors that accurately predicts who will develop the disease. Now, Daniel Kotz at Maastricht University Medical Centre, together with an international team of researchers, has developed the first prediction model for assessing COPD risk in patients. Using data from ten years worth of general practice records following 728,658 patients in Scotland, the model determined those most likely to develop COPD with 85% accuracy. Female smokers were most at risk, with social deprivation and a history of asthma also important risk factors.

Read the full research report here.

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